The data shows that in September 2022, the cumulative sales volume of Lili Auto was 11,531 units, which has completely overcome the adverse effects of the Li Li ONE production stoppage in August.

Li Auto said that sales in September were mainly contributed by the high-end model Li Li L9. In addition, the Ideal L8 has also been officially launched. As a leading manufacturer in China's new car-making forces, Li Auto seems to be doing fine.

But the capital market with a keen sense of smell does not seem to buy it. In June 2022, Li Auto’s US stock price reached a maximum of $41.4, but on October 11, there was only $19.68 per share, a drop of more than 50%.

The ideal car, which is popular in the automobile market, has encountered a crisis of confidence in the capital market. So, what has happened to the ideal car in the past few months?

Too small to support a long-term "story"

As we all know, in order to be favored by the capital market, listed companies need to have long-term investment value. However, in the past few months, the market value of new mainstream Chinese automakers, including Li Auto, has continued to fall, and it seems that they lack a foundation that can support stock prices.

The most important reason is that their foundations are unstable and they cannot be recognized by investors for a long time.

This is evident in sales. At the beginning of 2022, the new car-making forces such as Ideal, Xiaopeng, and Weilai have entered the 10,000-car club, and they are thriving. At that time, the gap between them and BYD and Tesla was not particularly exaggerated.

But now that several months have passed, the monthly sales of new car-making forces are still suppressed below 20,000 vehicles, among which manufacturers such as Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng still fall out of the 10,000-car club from time to time due to various factors. , while BYD's sales have soared to an astonishing 200,000 units.

So far, there are only three models of ideal L9, ideal L8 and ideal L7 under Li Auto. Only the ideal L9 has been delivered. The ideal L8 will not be delivered until November, and the ideal L7 will have to wait until February 2023.

The three axes in the early stage of the new car-making forces have been exhausted, but it is always difficult to form a breakthrough in the scale of sales. In fact, there is basically no "small and beautiful" in the automobile market. Automobile is an industry that wins by scale. Only with scale can there be profits and investment value.

Over the past few months, investors have rarely regarded the new car-making force as the "next Tesla." The limitation of size makes the upper limit of the new forces very low, which affects the judgment of the capital market on them.

Problems continue, ideal car control ability is insufficient

At present, several new car-making forces active in the market are almost all supported by Internet capital. Although the investment amount of Internet capital is quite large, the most common way to play is to fast in and out, quickly produce products, and quickly occupy the market.

However, the automobile is an asset-heavy industry with a very long industrial chain. It has high requirements on the channel construction, customer service, supplier management, and market promotion of automobile manufacturers. Problems in any link may damage the entire brand. The ideal car has been having problems recently, and it is the loss of inexperience.

On September 4, Ideal Auto announced that its main model, the Ideal ONE, will be reduced in price by 20,000 yuan and will be officially discontinued in October. The Lili ONE used to be the only model of Lili Auto on sale, and the sudden stoppage of production caused great dissatisfaction among users.

Regardless of the reason for the discontinuation of Ideal ONE, it has brought a huge impact on the ideal brand reputation. It shows from one side that the ideal car's ability to control the auto industry is still relatively weak, and there is no reasonable arrangement for the rhythm of new vehicles to be launched.

Simultaneously with the ideal ONE, there is also the reduction of the holdings of the ideal car senior officials. At the beginning of September, Shen Yanan, the No. 2 figure and president of Ideal Motors, sold shares of Lenovo Motors twice in a row within 4 days.

This news was interpreted by the market as "ideal executives lack confidence in the company's future", which brought great adverse effects to Ideal Auto.

In addition, the extended-range electric route that Li Auto adheres to has also been controversial. Judging from the current situation, the extended-range electric route seems to be recognized by many users. However, this kind of energy replenishment method of "charging while walking" is regarded as a "backward" technology by many technical experts.

With the popularity of plug-in hybrid models and pure electric models, it is still unknown whether extended-range electric vehicles will encounter market risks or even policy risks. For ordinary consumers, these are no problem, but for the capital market, uncertainty means risk, and risk will directly affect investment returns.

All kinds of unfavorable factors prove that Ideal Auto, as a "new force" in the auto industry, has not fully understood the auto industry. Ideal has indeed achieved a lot of achievements, but it is difficult to say whether such achievements are sustainable or not.

New car making forces such as Lili Auto are an important force in promoting the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. They have carried out many useful explorations, but the automobile industry is fundamentally different from the Internet industry. Can the new Chinese car-making forces fulfill this role? Conversion will determine their future development prospects.